Mario Castillo, Álvaro Mendoza y Sergio Cabrales
ABSTRACT: The Colombian Petroleum Company, ECOPETROL S.A., must select the best alternative to provide fuel during the next years to Nariño, a Colombian department located in the border with Ecuador. The decision has to be taken considering the implementation and operation costs associated to each alternative as well as other criteria related to the reliability in the transport of fuel such as the possibility of control and monitoring, and the time of transport. Since the problem involves some random variables, as well as quantitative and qualitative decision criteria, this paper addresses a structured decision analysis methodology that considers both type of decision criteria to select the best alternative supported in simulation and risk analysis models, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
KEYWORDS: transport of fuel, Decision Analysis, Risk Analysis, MonteCarlo Simulation, Analytic Hierarchy Process.